Reliable Systems

It is very tempting to be one of the herd of gazelles in technology.  Every time there’s  a sense of a shift in the wind, everyone starts to run in a new direction.  For the past year I’ve been reading about how it’s all going to be laptop computers from here on out.  In fact, not even full fledged laptops, but netbooks – computers with small screens and small keyboard who’s main distinguishing characteristic is that they’re less of a computer than anything else around.

If all this sounds a little off kilter from reality, perhaps a few hard numbers would help:

Quoting Computer World, who asked “Do Business Desktop PCs have a future?”:

While desktop PCs account for the bulk of personal computers sold to enterprises, the gap in laptop sales to enterprises is closing. Of 168 million PCs sold worldwide to professional organizations in 2008, about 95 million were desktops and 73 million were laptops. That’s compared to 94.6 million desktops and 47.3 million laptops that shipped in 2006.

Now, as with any statistics there’s two ways to look at these numbers:

1. Laptops have grown tremendously in their total percentage of the market, and that growth rate has them on track to take over the world.
2. The majority of the growth in computer sales is coming in the form of laptops.

The gazelles are taking the first road.  And why not?  People love to assume the disruptive is true, it’s a lot more interesting.  Before you charge down that road, consider what seems likely.  There are a few problems with the first conclusion:

• Two data points don’t make a pattern: If you follow the trend back farther, the sales of PC desktops has held up consistently, but laptop sales go up and down.  This would seem to indicate that the most likely interpretations of the data are that either the overall market is expanding (for example by people having two systems) or that this is a momentary, periodic surge in laptop purchases.
• Past large growth rarely projects forward: Just because there was a large growth in one year (either in absolute or percentage turns) doesn’t mean it will repeat at all.  It’s just as likely that the next year pattern will be flat or even retreat.

So before you see the first twitch and assume it signals a migration of the whole herd, step back and think through the underlying facts.  Is this really the first sign of a monumental shift?  Or just another twitch of the needle?  Then look at your own situation.

Now, we have a few laptops, but we have more hard core desktops – the laptops are used for on the road presentations or working at Starbucks for fun.  Of course, we’re developers so we’re in the category of users that are always excluded from the norm.  But what’s not to love about a desktop?  For the same money they will always be faster and more capable than a laptop because they don’t have the burden of being small or extra power efficient.  Even if you buy into the idea that everything will be run through the web so computers are just glorified terminals…  Something still has to compose all of those web pages and make it all come together, and web apps can burn a surprising amount of processor and RAM locally.

In the end, I think we’re seeing a lot of folks buying second computers or getting additional laptops for other uses that complement their primary work computer experience.  Additionally, there are folks in emerging markets that need what laptops offer (self-contained, reliable power) more than performance but this reflects an increase in the overall market, not a shift in the existing market.